As the self-declared return date of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina approaches, discussions regarding the Awami League continue to intensify within Bangladesh’s political arena. The party that those currently in power have declared "irrelevant" is the very same party over which they have now initiated a tug-of-war.

On one side, the BNP alleges that Jamaat-e-Islami is striking an understanding with them. On the other, Jamaat counter-alleges that the BNP is scheming to bring the Awami League back into politics.

Although the Awami League was excluded from the February general election, the field stayed heated with discussion about whom its supporters would vote for, why they would vote for them, or whether they would vote at all. That discussion continues even after the voting, and BNP leaders like to say that Awami League supporters voted for Jamaat.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman initiated the latest exchange of mutual accusations at a public rally in Rajshahi last month. He stated, “There is clear intelligence information that the autocrat who fled is supplying money there. Whom are they helping by supplying this money? There are some people, a party, who spread confusion in the country. Who tried to sell various tickets to the public before the election, telling lies. These two sides have become one.”

By "autocrat," the Prime Minister was referring to the Awami League, while the party that "sold tickets" before the election was Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat rejected this allegation and made a counter-allegation that the BNP came to power by striking an understanding with the Awami League. However, eight months into the BNP government, no result of this alleged understanding is yet visible.

Both parties claim to be the torchbearers of the 2024 anti-government movement and repeatedly pledge to resist the Awami League’s return to politics. However, their recent discourse indicates that a significant portion of their politics remains focused on the party that was ousted in 2024.

Awami League leaders have stated that they will not cooperate with any party, including the BNP, Jamaat, or NCP. They intend to convey that the ideological gap between the Awami League and these parties is so vast that there is no possibility of an understanding among them.

Within the context of Bangladesh's politics, the possibility of an "understanding" between the Awami League and either Jamaat or the BNP cannot be entirely ruled out. Historical review shows that just as Jamaat has adopted various strategies to survive, the two major parties have similarly used Jamaat to harm one another.

It is often understood that Jamaat was rehabilitated in independent Bangladesh with the cooperation of General Ziaur Rahman and his party, the BNP. However, the Awami League later did not hesitate to cooperate with Jamaat either.

For example, in the 1986 election, the League and Jamaat participated when the other anti-Ershad parties, including the BNP, boycotted the vote. The two parties conducted their anti-Ershad movement in coordination with Jamaat, although they refrained from giving Jamaat a place on their own platform. In the country’s politics, there was still something called a sense of shame (chokkhulojja) then.

Jamaat’s relationship with the BNP began to grow close following the fall of Ershad. Although the BNP contested the 1991 election alone, many suspected at the time that an unwritten understanding had been reached with Jamaat.

Although the BNP won the election, it did not secure the seats necessary to form a government. After Jamaat’s 18 MPs extended their support, the BNP was able to form the government.

A decade after Khaleda Zia's first cabinet, the BNP and Jamaat formally formed an alliance and jointly participated in the 2001 election. By that time, the sense of shame from the eighties and nineties had departed the country.

Following their election victory, two former commanders of the Al-Badr force, Motiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, secured positions in Khaleda Zia's new cabinet.

The Awami League has also collaborated with Jamaat to place the BNP in a difficult position. The most prominent example is the 1994 incident when both parties simultaneously resigned from parliament to demand elections under a caretaker government. Although they never shared a stage outside parliament, the two parties conducted their anti-BNP movement together, while the Awami League still maintained a sense of shame at the time.

The BNP shares a deep relationship with Jamaat, having contested elections within the same alliance and formed a government together. The two groups have also engaged in joint agitation and carried out violence across the country, which included arson, locally referred to as jalao-pora ("burn and torch").

The Awami League has cooperated with Jamaat at certain times for strategic reasons, but the leaders and activists of these two parties were not seen together in elections or on the streets.

Now the question is: In the present backdrop of politics, how likely is an “understanding” between the Awami League and Jamaat?

The prime minister referred to “intelligence” information, revealing that intelligence agencies have once again become active in the political arena by gathering data on opposition parties. This raises questions about whether the agencies actually provided such information and, if so, whether the details were accurate or tailored to serve the government's current agenda.

The prime minister did not present any evidence in support of his statement, though merely saying that "intelligence has information" is also not enough. This is especially the case since, from 2001 onward, only the BNP's name was being added to Jamaat's.

Following the 2024 change of power and in the absence of the Awami League, Jamaat views itself as the BNP's rival for power, while the BNP also has a significant advantage. Neither party wants the Awami League to return to politics, acting out of their own interests. Opposition to the Awami League serves to unite these two parties.

Jamaat likely views the announcement of Sheikh Hasina's return as an indication of some behind-the-scenes understanding. Along with them, the young leaders of the NCP have also grown somewhat restless regarding the Awami League question.

Protests and long marches organized by Jamaat and the NCP are taking place across various regions of the country to demand the implementation of the July Charter. It can be assumed that another objective of these demonstrations is to maintain pressure to prevent the government from becoming lenient toward the Awami League.

The war of words between BNP and Jamaat-NCP is now at the stage of the boxing “shadow fight.” The two sides are circling each other but are not trying to land a blow. If an understanding with the Awami League were proven, it would amount to betrayal of 2024. But through this, they are once again proving how relevant the Awami League is in Bangladesh’s politics.

For the Awami League’s leaders, the biggest challenge now is to hold the party together and to lift the morale of leaders and activists. There are three most important goals before them now. First, how Sheikh Hasina’s return to the homeland can be made successful. Second, lifting the ban on the Awami League’s activities. And third, freeing their leaders and activists from jail and settling the cases filed against them.

Why would the Awami League make an understanding with Jamaat to achieve these goals? None of these goals seems achievable with Jamaat’s help. It is foolish even to think that Jamaat would help the Awami League achieve its goals.

But BNP may perhaps think, and the intelligence agencies may perhaps have fed that thinking, that the Awami League’s aim is to create anarchy in the country and put the government in danger by weakening Tarique Rahman’s hand and force him to become lenient towards the Awami League. But even there, the possibility of an Awami League-Jamaat understanding is slim.

The Awami League must reach an understanding with the government, as such an agreement would enable Sheikh Hasina’s return to be both possible and safe. Similarly, an understanding with the government would smooth the Awami League’s path back into politics.

Because the BNP and the Awami League have ceased even acknowledging each other, mediation by a third force will be required to broker that understanding.

Sabir Mustafa, formerly the head of BBC Bangla, is now a freelance journalist and podcaster. The views expressed are his own.

Why it matters

The intensifying friction between major political parties in Bangladesh underscores ongoing realignments and strategic competition regarding the future role of the ousted Awami League.