The BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand 2025 has beenpolitically and diplomatically very successful for the Interim Government. The relationship with both our neighborsrecently is not going smoothly mainly because ofthe Rohingyaissuewith one neighbor and the ousting of the Hasina Regimewith the other. Chief Advisor’s sideline meeting at BIMSTEC with both Heads of the government of neighboring (bordering) countries has exhibited the diplomaticprudence of Dhaka.
Based on recent developments on the Rohingya issue at the Summit, I would like to discuss my take on the prospect of Rohingya Repatriation;the declaration of positive verification of one lac eighty thousandRohingyas as well as another seventy thousand verifications in the process is undoubtedly an excellent diplomatic headway after such a long impasse on theissue. However, let me caution the readers not to jump to the conclusion that Rohingya repatriation is around the corner. A few factors should be taken into consideration before reaching a deduction. In January 2018 there was an agreement withMyanmar and a repatriation arrangement deal was signed betweentwo countries where the foreignminister of Indonesia played an important role. The repatriation was scheduled to commence on 23 January 2018. Bangladeshshared the list of Rohingya for verificationearlier of the agreed repatriation date andhere we are today. Bangladesh proposed to Myanmar to receive 15,000 Rohingyas per week but Myanmaragreed to receive 15,00. Nonetheless, not a singleRohingya was repatriated.
The Junta’s expression of eligibility of 1,80,000 Rohingyas to return to Myanmar at the sideline of the Summit and the intention of taking back Rohingyas are two different issues. Especially, on Rohingya repatriation,the Junta has no practical significance at the moment and maybeshortly. Rakhine state where the Rohingya would repatriate is totally under the control of the Arakan Army (AA). They are theauthority andthe Junta is not even in any decision-making cycle in Rakhine State. Janta’s force,TATMADAW has been defeated in detail and is now at the mercy of AA in whatever pockets they are surviving in Rakhine. In reality, AA and its political wing United League of Arakan (ULA) are in a position to decide on Rohingya repatriation.
TATMADAW is run by a cunning set of professionals, deception, decoy, and divide are theirfavorite tools. In a negotiation, their expression seldom revealsa conclusion. If we recall, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing when he took over as Chief of Defence in 2011 said, ‘We have an unfinished job to be done’ that heightenedRohingyapersecution and finally shaped into genocide (ethniccleansing) in 2017. In 2018, in aninternational media Senior General commented about Rohingya repatriation ‘We did not send them to bring them back’. In 2021 after the coup when the Junta was on the back foot both at homeand abroad, even then to other international media JuntaChiefcleared his position about Rohingya repatriation,‘there was no option to bring them back’. This gentleman is known to be egoistic and pursuer of aim. We need to read the face under the mask.
So, why Junta is showing a positive attitude towards Rohingya repatriation? This is a diplomatic mischief by the Junta to push the ball in AA’s court on one hand and on the other hand attach a clause‘when the situation in Rakhine is favorable for repatriation’, meaning no promise is being made. The other reason could be Malaysia being the Chair of ASEAN has deputed a special envoy on the Rohingya issue who is pushing the matter. Also,the recent visit of Prof Yunus to China and Dhaka’s proposition to help resolvethe Rohingya crisis to President Xi Jinping is a factor too.More so,the UN SecretaryGeneral’s visit to Bangladesh and eating together with Rohingya at Cox’s Bazar is a strong signal of sympathy andsolidarity for the repatriation of Rohingya. All of these, have conditioned to compel Min Aung Haling to come upwith this Rohingya verification statement at BIMSTEC after six years.
I shall not be surprised if at an opportune moment,Janta plans to carry out an offensive in Rakhine and seeks Dhaka’s assistance in the form of sealing theborder to deprive any kind of support to AAin exchange promise of Rohingya repatriation. Alternatively,in a desperation the Junta might agree to a UN peaceenforcement operation under ChapterVII in Rakhine in the pleafor Rohingya repatriation and protection of minorities thereby pushing AA onthe back foot and gaining a foothold in Rakhine again. In any case,both China and India are comfortable with the Junta sincetheirinterestswere served by the Junta. Regional powers are likely to support the Junta for predictability, dependability, and stability in Rakhine.
However, as a student of security studies, I am not very hopeful about Rohingya repatriation on the face value of the Junta’s current statement on the sideline at the BIMSTEC Summit. Nonetheless, this is also a significant development and I would like to recognize the pragmatism of the Interim Government that it attached due importance to the Rohingya issue and deputeda person of wisdom as a high representative of the government to dedicatedly deal with the issue and we are observing the difference.
Written by-
Lt Gen (Retd) Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman, PhD
Former Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division
